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OPEC panel looking at deepening, extending oil cuts

19 May 2017

A decrease in non-OPEC supply (including OPEC, natural gas liquids NGLs) of 0.39 mbpd, together with a decline of 0.02 mbpd from OPEC, further reduced the overall global oil output in April.

Although the storage trade has been less profitable since the OPEC production cuts, much of that oil remains in tanks, said Chris Bake, an executive committee member at Vitol, the world's largest independent trader, during an industry conference last week in London.

Thomas Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group LLC, added, "There's room for guarded optimism: OPEC appears to be close to an agreement to roll over the cuts, and US inventories are finally starting to decline".

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The cost to drill for shale has fallen by more than one-third in the last two years, analysts said.

Earlier today, Reuters reported that an OPEC panel tasked to discuss options for the cartel cuts extension ahead of next week's meeting in Vienna is studying deeper cuts.

Some even believed that Iran was the sole victor of OPEC deal.

OPEC didn't give USA shale enough respect In the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest monthly report, estimated inventories in industrialized nations totaled about 3.025 billion barrels on March 31.

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IHS Markit estimates that new wells are producing at twice the productivity levels they once did with the new breakeven price for shale drilling now US$43-$45 a barrel. What market analysts referred to as "the biggest oil market risk for 2017" now is seemed to be happening. Tight oil production has increased, apparently unfazed by the OPEC/No-OPEC mechanizations to ease gluttonous crude inventories. These sanctions resulted in roughly 800,000 barrels per day of Iranian production being shut-in between January 2012 and December 2015.

What's in the deal extension for Iran? For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the news agency that there's a "good chance" the non-OPEC nation will continue to hold down its production. "The market will also be looking at export cuts and not just production cuts, which is what is required to re-balance the market".

They need the prices above $50 for Aramco's bid to go as planned.

If prices drift significantly higher than the Dun & Bradstreet $55 forecast after the IPO, that will create incentive for some OPEC members to cheat, he said.

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Oil prices fell on Thursday on signs that the market remained well supplied with crude despite efforts by OPEC and other big exporters to curb production and support prices.