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India's Consumer Inflation Rebounds From Record Low in July

15 August 2017

LONDON-Britain's consumer price inflation remained unchanged and growth in producers' raw materials costs slowed sharply in July, new figures showed Tuesday, adding to signs that a squeeze on United Kingdom households evident since last year's Brexit vote might soon begin to ease. Earlier this month the MPC voted by a majority of six versus two to maintain rates at their 0.25 per cent level, following on from weaker-than-expected inflation in June and Q2 GDP figures.

Rural CFPI rose 0.07% as against a drop of -0.99% in urban areas. PMI data showed average prices charged for goods and services rose at an increased rate again in July, contrasting with slower rates of increase seen in prior months, as inflationary pressures in supply chains intensified again. Retail inflation in pulses and products was minus 24.75 per cent in July, and in vegetables it was minus 3.57 per cent. It's fairly well documented that EDF Energy has increased its energy prices, which will feed into the numbers, while food-price inflation is accelerating.

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The decline was countered in part by food prices notching 0.1% higher month on month in July after falling by 0.2% over the period past year. However, the WPI in June 2016 declined to (-) 0.09 per cent. Within the food items, the inflation increased for vegetables to (-) 3.57%, fruits 2.83%, prepared meals, snacks, candies etc 5.04% and non-alcoholic beverages 2.80%.

It stood at 1.46 percent in June.

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As per the CPI numbers, the food price inflation came in at - 0.29 percent, higher than - 1.17 percent in June amid vegetable prices witnessing sharp spike. Similarly, inflation in manufactured products slowed marginally to 2.18% in July from 2.27% in June. Stakeholders are anxious about the consumer inflation numbers expected later in the day.

Further price rises may still be in train, as the Bank of England predicted at the start of the month that inflation will reach around 3 per cent in October, after earlier touching a four-year high of 2.9 per cent in May. Okra (Bhindi) saw inflation at 32.4%. However, on a YoY basis, it was lower than the 6.07 per cent CPI rate reported for the corresponding month of past year. It was the first rate cut by an Asian central bank this year.

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Fuel inflation was 4.84 percent in June, as compared with 5.46 percent in May.

India's Consumer Inflation Rebounds From Record Low in July