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India's wholesale price inflation in July rises to 1.88%

16 August 2017

CPI inflation retreated to 2.6% in June from 2.9% in May, effectively killing off any chance of a rate hike in the summer.

The figure is still well above the Bank of England's two per cent target, but analysts suggested United Kingdom inflation growth is beginning to lose steam.

"As expected, CPI inflation rebounded to 2.4% in July 2017 from the series low of 1.5% in June 2017, on account of rising vegetable prices, the revision in HRA (house rent allowance) and, to some extent, higher GST on various services", said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ratings agency ICRA.

The government called on Friday for more rate cuts as it flagged risks to economic growth and budget targets.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation was forecast to reach 2.7 per cent last month, up from 2.6 per cent in June, according to consensus figures, but it has held steady.

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Food price inflation for urban areas stood at (-) 0.99 per cent in July 2017 against 3.62 per cent in June 2017 and 8.80 per cent in July a year ago.

"Policy rates have likely plateaued for now, with room for rate cuts requiring a sharp downward drift in core inflation or growth slump in FYH2", said Radhika Rao, group economist at DBS Bank.

Food prices of pulses, potatoes and onions experienced a free fall as a result of a supply glut. In the fuel and power segment, inflation witnessed a decline at 4.37 per cent in July, over 5.28 per cent in the previous month.

Headline CPI in the United Kingdom surprisingly stayed unchanged at +2.6% y/y in July, compared with consensus of a renewed pick up to +2.7%.

On a monthly basis, there was a further decline in fuel costs which had the biggest impact in restraining price increases for the month.

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At 4:33pm BST, the pound was down 0.83% versus the dollar at $1.2857, well below 10-month highs versus the greenback seen at the start of the month. He expects wage growth to remain at 2% for the rest of the year.

But after more than quadrupling since Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, there are now signs that this surge in inflation is beginning to level off.

Annual input price inflation peaked at 19.9% in January, and has been slowing every month since then.

Output prices grew 3.2 percent annually in July, weaker than the 3.3 percent increase in June.

It was also found that the year-on-year increase in producers' raw material costs fell to 6.5% last month, down from 10% in June - the biggest month-to-month slowdown in nearly five years. In June, this was only 1.3 percent.

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India's wholesale price inflation in July rises to 1.88%