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Dollar, UK Stocks Dips on Strong Pound

14 September 2017

Wage growth that is lagging behind inflation is also a serious concern for policymakers as this could dampen household spending, going forward.

She said: "Worries about high inflation expectations becoming entrenched and the degree of spare capacity in the economy may well lead to more MPC members voting for a rate hike sooner rather than later". On month, output prices rose 0.4 percent from July, when it edged up by 0.1 percent.

Inflation has shot past the BoE's 2 percent target - surging to its highest level in more than five years according to data released this week at 2.9 percent. Part of the weak wage growth reflects a seven-year policy of public-sector wage restraint to help cut government borrowing.

The ONS said that, although the rise in inflation had been triggered by the decline in the pound following last year's Brexit referendum, increasing global commodity prices also played a part.

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The Bank of England hinted Thursday that it may be ready to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade, possibly as soon as November, in order to keep a lid on inflation, which has shot up since Britain's decision past year to leave the European Union.

The BoE repeated a previous message that all nine monetary policy committee members thought rates could rise faster than financial markets expected but any increases would be gradual and limited. Markets are now pricing in around a 40% chance of a rate increase in the United Kingdom before the year is out, a fairly significant jump on the less than 30% chance before the inflation release.

"The market favours today's hawkish stance, and the pound (is) rallying against the dollar in anticipation of a coming rate rise". The core measure of inflation, which strips out the volatile component of energy, also rose to an above forecast 2.7% from 2.4%.

The bank reduced interest rates last August to 0.25 percent after Britain's vote to leave the European Union, and the country has not seen a rate rise in more than a decade, since July 2017.

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The Bank will have no other option but to let the inflation run higher than its current target and this is pretty much what we are expecting from the MPC minutes on Thursday. However, the upward pressure on consumer prices is mostly the effect of the substantial depreciation of the GBP since late 2015.

The precious metal is suffering from profit taking and the retracement continues.

Ahead of the latest Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, the latest Office for National Statistics numbers for United Kingdom inflation should attract attention on Tuesday, although undoubtedly the launch of Apple Inc's (NASDAQ:AAPL) will see the most interest.

"It looks a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at 0.25 per cent on Thursday after the September MPC meeting", said Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at the EY Item Club.

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Dollar, UK Stocks Dips on Strong Pound