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Draghi opens fire at USA dollar policy

26 January 2018

Draghi also said that recent swings in the euro exchange rate with the dollar — mostly up in the past few days — were "a potential source of instability" that required "monitoring". This has contributed to the euro performing at 1.234 against the dollar, its best performance since end 2014.

At 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT the market will have to deal with Draghi speaking for an hour or so, and data in the form of Canada retail sales, U.S. employment claims and goods trade balance.

On a trade-weighted basis, the euro's rise is far less marked, however. "For me this is what is causing investors to buy the Euro again", says Neil Jones at Mizuho Bank Ltd.

Economists forecast that US economic growth will have slipped back from 3.2% to 3% in the fourth quarter, likely denting the US Dollar. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary.

Investors were eagerly awaiting Mr Draghi's comments on the euro after European Central Bank policy-makers kept interest rates and guidance unchanged, all the more since US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Wednesday talked of the benefits of a weak dollar.

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The greenback had suffered its biggest daily percentage drop in seven months on Wednesday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he welcomed a weaker currency.

The U.S. dollar was up 0.17 percent against a basket of major currencies after Trump told CNBC in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, he wants to see a strong dollar.

Recent currency gains have triggered concern that the downward pressure on prices could complicate the ECB's gradual exit from extraordinary stimulus.

Europe's single currency also rose as much as 0.4 per cent against sterling after earlier trading flat.

Any signs of Mario Draghi adopting a dovish stance and verbally intervening could expose the Euro to downside risks.

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"What is striking is that he's trying his best to push out rate hike expectations but the market appears to be ignoring that", said Kim Liu, senior fixed income strategist at ABN AMRO.

German business morale in January recovered from last month's dip to climb back to the same record-high level seen in November, the Ifo economic institute said, surpassing market expectations.

The market reaction underscored how tricky it will be for the European Central Bank to wean the eurozone off mass bond-buying and ultimately raise interest rates in the coming months and years.

That sentiment sent the euro to three-year highs against the dollar. 10 year 2.632%, -1.5 basis points.

Draghi also said that work to rework the bank's policy guidance, flagged in the minutes of the last meeting, has not really started and there was also no discussion about winding down the asset purchase programme.

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Draghi opens fire at USA dollar policy