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IEA raises 2018 oil demand growth estimate to 1.4 million b/d

15 February 2018

Refining rates fell as USA refiners reduce activity for seasonal maintenance.

The Paris-based agency said that a massive increase in output means the us will soon be producing more oil than Saudi Arabia.

The International Energy Agency on Tuesday raised its estimate of global oil demand growth this year to 1.4 million b/d, but also raised its estimate of U.S. oil output growth to 1.52 million b/d, citing the shale industry's "second wave" of growth.

OPEC said the United States and other outside producers would boost supply by 1.4 million bpd this year, up 250,000 bpd from last month and the third consecutive rise from 870,000 bpd in November.

The expansion of the petrochemical industry, as well as steady vehicle sales in the US, China and India, are seen as providing additional support.

The drill concluded on the same day that U.S. lawmakers sent a budget bill to President Donald Trump that would sell off about half of what's in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves within the next few years.

“With the Trump administration, the pressure on China to balance accounts with the U.S.is huge.

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Oil stockpiles in developed nations fell the most in more than six years in December as supply cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation took effect.

"We've been very bullish on shale oil growth". The findings reveal the crude oil market to be highly reactive to unconventional monetary policy surprises.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with other exporters such as Russian Federation, have agreed to maintain a joint restriction on crude supply for a second year running in 2018, to force inventories to drain and support prices.

On Monday, OPEC announced its expectation that global demand would increase by 1.59 bpd in 2018, to 98.6 million bpd. Since the stock market began falling early this month, oil prices have wiped away the year's gains.

USA exports would be even greater but for infrastructure constraints: no US port can handle the biggest oil tankers, known as Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC). Asian refineries have already increased their oil orders from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Analysts noted that oil consumption remains robust. Thanks to the shale boom, USA crude is cheaper than oil from elsewhere.

Brent crude futures were at $62.78 per barrel, up 19 cents, or 0.3 percent, from the previous close.

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The reason why the oil market might suffer from a renewed glut largely comes down to soaring USA shale production.

USA crude stocks rose less then expected last week, while gasoline stocks rose by more than analysts had forecast as refineries cut output, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the oil market is dynamic and things could change quickly.

Most OPEC producers sell crude under long-term contracts which are priced monthly, sometimes retro-actively. Gasoline inventories, however, rose 3.6 million barrels, more than expected.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose 63 cents, or 1.06 per cent to Dollars 59.83, while Brent, used to price worldwide oils, was up 55 cents, or 0.88 per cent at USD 63.34 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. But the International Energy Agency warned Tuesday that a "colossal" oil boom in the United States could ruin their efforts.

Despite all these challenges to the traditional oil order, established producers are putting on a fearless face.

With the gradual stabilization of stock exchanges, the attention of traders shifts to the fundamental indicators of the oil market, which are supply and demand.

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IEA raises 2018 oil demand growth estimate to 1.4 million b/d