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Angolan oil exports drop, IEA says worse to come

07 March 2018

Houston/London: US shale oil output is set to surge over the next five years, stealing market share from Opec producers and moving the United States, once the world's top oil importer, closer to self sufficiency, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday.

Saudi Arabia said last week it hoped the agreement could be relaxed next year and followed by a permanent framework to stabilize oil markets after the deal expires. With oil prices up about 15 percent since oil ministers and top executives convened here past year, fears have receded for a slugfest of OPEC vs. US shale. In 2018 alone, U.S.'s crude oil output is set to expand by 1.3 million bpd in 2018, allowing it to overtake Saudi Arabia and rival Russian Federation as the world's largest crude producer, the energy watchdog said.

A source in one of the delegations told Sputnik that energy ministers of Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates will take part in the upcoming meeting of OPEC with the USA shale oil producers. (See figure.) While shale producers have subsequently reworked their economics to reduce costs, allowing production to resume growth at much lower prices, there is no longer the concern that production can not be reined in by lower prices.

The UAE's oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said at a recent industry conference, that without OPEC there would be market chaos and no shale players.

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It's too early for OPEC to discuss extending production cuts into 2019, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in Houston. It was adopted last winter by OPEC, Russia, and nine other global producers.

The US Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report it expected fourth-quarter US crude output to reach an average of 11.17 million bpd, up from its forecast a month ago of 11.04 million bpd. We could find out more this evening. So far the country has proven to be OPEC's second-most compliant member, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "I think the oil companies would be the first to tell you that stability in the oil price is important to them", he added. "We must challenge mistaken assumptions about the speed with which alternatives will penetrate markets". USA export capacity will rise to 4.9 MMBPD by 2023, with Corpus Christi, Texas, consolidating its position as the largest US export hub.

The IEA forecasts that overall U.S. production gains will represent 60% of new global output to 2023.

The rising demand for oil has "unleashed a new wave of growth from the USA", according to the IEA. The components of the equilibrium of the oil market are dynamic and much will change in the upcoming months.

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A survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Platts expected stocks to rise by 2.5 million barrels last week.

It's Day 2 at CERAWeek by IHS Markit, the five-day gathering in Houston of some of the energy industry's biggest names.

Exxon Mobil Corp and others have said they expect rising petrochemical and aviation fuel demand to offset a drop in demand for liquid fuels such as gasoline. In a sign of that convergence, the head of Alphabet Inc's Google Cloud division also will attend the conference.

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Angolan oil exports drop, IEA says worse to come