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Oil market points to 'tighter for longer' as Trump ditches Iran deal

10 May 2018

Wall Street cut its losses to end little changed on Tuesday while energy stocks rallied after US President Donald Trump said the United States would quit the Iran nuclear deal, confirming what many investors had expected.

Analysts said widening of positions by participants amid pick up in demand at the spot market against tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil prices higher at futures trade.

But Kloza sees relief in the future because oil production is booming in the U.S. The E.I.A. projects domestic crude production will rise to almost 12 million barrels a day in 2019 - that's a million more barrels of oil a day than the country is expected to produce this year.

Contracts for Brent, the global crude benchmark, and for the U.S.

Expressing doubts over Iran's sincerity, Trump has threatened to walk away from the 2015 agreement by not extending sanctions waivers when they expire on May 12, which would likely result in a reduction of Iran's oil exports.

Since then, Iran ramped up supplies, producing 3.81 million bpd in March 2018, nearly 4 percent of global output. Over the last month, crude oil imports averaged about 8.1 million barrels per day, down 1.0% year over year.

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"Japan and South Korea may comply with the proposed USA reimposition of Iranian sanctions on the concern of losing the US security umbrella vis-à-vis North Korea", Khoman said. The Treasury Department said on Tuesday that sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade and energy industry will come with a six-month lag.

The price of crude oil has not been above $70 a barrel since 2014.

That made Iran the third-biggest exporter of crude within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Some traders, however, are becoming cautious about ever higher oil prices.

Benchmark U.S. crude gained $2, or 2.9 percent, to $71.06 a barrel in NY, the highest level since late 2014. And it's unclear how the petroleum cartel will respond to the renewed sanctions.

"I think we have 180 days before any supply impact", an OPEC source said when asked about any plans for action.

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But a drop in Iranian exports due to a return of U.S. sanctions, plus involuntary supply losses in other OPEC members such as Venezuela, would mean the supply cut would be significantly larger than intended.

Just how much of Iran's growth in oil production is at risk - and when it could decline - is uncertain. The move reinstalls sanctions on the Iranian regime.

Saudi Arabia said it would work with other producers to lessen the impact of any shortage in oil supplies.

Next year, crude production is seen averaging 11.86 million barrels a day, up from a prior forecast of 11.44 million a day, according to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.

"At least for the moment the movement in oil is moderate and seems to be more or less what the market was expecting", said Phil Guarco, global investment specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

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Oil market points to 'tighter for longer' as Trump ditches Iran deal