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U.S. leaving of JCPOA won't affect Iran's oil, gas exports, revenue: Zanganeh

15 May 2018

The President made the same claim in announcing his decision to pull the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement earlier this week - an assertion that fact checkers have called "exaggerated" and lacking crucial context. After that date everybody will have to cut back their oil imports from Iran over the next six months, which is before May 5, 2019. This time, analysts expect much less of an impact.

It also suggests that the market sees November - when sanctions on those importing Iranian oil will come into effect - as far away.

The U.S. administration is giving affected companies either 90 days or 180 days to wind down their interactions with Tehran before sanctions kick in again. While the full impact of the US exit from the nuclear accord is still unclear, the re-imposition of far-reaching sanctions is expected to start reducing shipments from Iran.

Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter in 2016 after worldwide sanctions against it were lifted in return for curbs on its nuclear program, with its April exports standing above 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd). Most of that is shipped to China, India and South Korea.

Israeli-Iranian conflict risks Russian involvement
Aside from the mounting military tensions between Iran and Israel, oil prices are rising on the uncertainty. Israel has warned it will not tolerate its archenemy Iran establishing a military presence on its doorstep.

Nevertheless, it is still unclear how strongly the world oil markets will be affected.

US crude inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels in the week to May 4, to 433.76 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), slightly above the 420 million barrels five-year average level.

Pavel Molchanov from Raymond James thinks oil prices have been surging most likely due to concerns about potential escalation of the conflict in the future. Now this global supply is threatened.

As for the main reasons of price increase, the report pointed out to rising global oil demand, falling crude oil production in Venezuela and possible crude export decline from Iran.

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The West of England Club said any activity would have to stop the moment any entity that's dubbed a Specially Designated National by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control is re-added to a secondary sanctions list.

Another factor that's helping to reduce supply is an agreement between OPEC and other major producers including Russian Federation to slash output.

Volkswagen vlkay had been reticent about entering the Iranian market, due to its exposure to the US market, but past year it started selling cars in the Islamic Republic again.

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U.S. leaving of JCPOA won't affect Iran's oil, gas exports, revenue: Zanganeh