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Democrats seek blueprint for bucking Trump in 2020 — AP Analysis

06 November 2018

If the Democrats do get their hands on at least one of the two bodies that make up the US Congress it could have a significant impact on the next two years of Mr Trump's presidency.

"Rather the question is: if there is a real blue wave in the House, will there be enough pro-free trade Democrats to join the Republican minority to overcome the traditional anti-trade Democrats and others who simply do not wish to give Trump a victory", Kergin, now a senior advisor at Bennett Jones LLP, told BNN Bloomberg in an email. But two years after an election that proved polls and prognosticators wrong, nothing is certain on the eve of the first nationwide elections of the Trump presidency.

"Everything matters and everything's at stake", Schriock said.

Trump is not on the ballot in the midterms, in which the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate are up for grabs. "A lot of things are offensive", Mr Trump said.

In an interview with ABC on Monday, the president said he wished he had had "a much softer tone" throughout his presidency.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter run by the University of Virginia Centre for Politics, predicted the Democrats would gain 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need to form a majority. "It's all fragile", he said.

And while polls in the USA will not begin closing until well after the market closes, futures markets could be active overnight Tuesday depending on the outcome, with Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress or Republicans retaining control of both houses the outcomes which would likely create the most market volatility.

Many Democrats are counting on anti-Trump fervor to drive their base to the polls, but some advocate ignoring the politics of personal destruction and zeroing in on policy debates.

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Tuesday's elections will also test the strength of a Trump-era political realignment defined by evolving divisions among voters by race, gender and especially education. With the district having almost the same number of Democratic and Republican voters enrolled, it's uncertain which Democrat Clyde Parker or Republican Joseph DeStefano will prevail, although DeStefano also has the Conservative, Independence and Reform party lines. Young people, who historically sit out of midterm elections, and women are both expected to be pivotal forces Tuesday. "We expect that to occur in 2019".

Trump's polarizing style has spurred record turnout, cranking up enthusiasm in both parties as voters cast ballots to oppose or support the president. Blue-collar men, however, have embraced the unconventional president. "It really stretches our ability to look into the future, because all we can do in looking at polls and making forecasts is what's happened in the past", Klein said.

This insecure white tribe is Donald Trump's base; there's no confusion in his mind about his message or his target audience.

A nationwide poll released Sunday by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal details the depth of the demographic shifts.

Among white college-educated women, Democrats enjoy a 28-point advantage: 61 per cent to 33 per cent.

The disagreement highlights the tug-of-war over strategy that's been dogging the GOP all year: Should Republicans prioritize turning out Trump backers, or appeal to suburban swing voters? So if Bankrate's survey is correct, the Democrats have hope, and the Republicans should worry.

Since 1950, a victorious party has never trailed by more than 4.5 percent in the week of a midterm election.

He's undecided going into Election Day. "But it'll be a start". Nationally, about 52 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's performance.

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This outcome would be a massive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican party.

The president's critics say the highly charged atmosphere he has helped create made the two attackers feel sufficiently comfortable to carry out their crimes.

More than most midterms, this election became a referendum on Mr Trump, as he himself has told his audiences it would be.

Turnout is traditionally low in the United States mid-terms, with the 2014 election seeing a post-war record low of just 37 percent.

Ronna McDaniel, head of the Republican National Committee, said on ABC's "This Week" program that the media had chosen to focus on Trump's immigration rhetoric but the president was also emphasizing economic and job gains under his presidency. The network identified three possible scenarios, and "our best estimate as of today is: 225 Democratic seats - just beyond the 218 needed for a majority - to 210 Republican seats, with a margin of error of plus or minus 13 seats on each, keeping the possibility open that Republicans retain control".

Pollsters are pegging the Democrats as most likely to take control of the House of Representatives, but the Senate is a much bigger ask. Democrats are favored to win more House seats than they now have and they need an overall gain of 23 to retake the House majority. Speaking to reporters as he left the White House en route to his rallies, Trump seemed to dampen expectations for his party in the House. "Which is a big difference", she said. Maybe Democrats pull a shocker in Tennessee and/or Texas but lose supposedly easier states.

Liberal activist Tom Steyer spent roughly US$120 million this midterm season.

Steyer insisted most Democrats agree.

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Hurl noted numerous criticisms of global trade come from within the Democratic Party, but also said he thinks the USMCA deal is "relatively safe" regardless of Tuesday's outcome.

Democrats seek blueprint for bucking Trump in 2020 — AP Analysis